This essay seeks to explore the following questions:
1. To what extent would a Bennett–Lapid–Eisenkot government preserve, modify or deepen Israel’s existing strategic alignment with Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean?
2. How far can the Israel–Greece–Cyprus axis function as a meaningful deterrent against Turkish coercion, especially if Greece experiences renewed political instability after the 2027 elections?
3. What practical adjustments should Greek and Cypriot policymakers make—both in their bilateral dealings with Israel and in the institutionalisation of the trilateral framework—in anticipation of possible political alternation in Jerusalem?
This essay examines the implications for Greece and Cyprus of the newly announced Bennett–Lapid alliance, with the possible participation of Gadi Eisenkot, which seeks to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel’s 2026 elections. It argues that the emergent coalition would not overturn Israel’s core alignment with Athens and Nicosia, since the Israel–Greece–Cyprus axis rests on convergent structural interests: constraining Turkish revisionism, developing Eastern Mediterranean energy routes and enhancing maritime security from the Adriatic to the Gulf of Aden. However, a Bennett–Lapid–Eisenkot government would probably manage this alignment with greater procedural predictability and somewhat less personalised, polarising rhetoric than Netanyahu, even as it faced comparable pressures from Iran, domestic polarisation and United States energy and security priorities.
The essay concludes that Israel cannot substitute for robust Greek state capacity or for Euro‑Atlantic security guarantees in deterring Turkish coercion, but can significantly raise the costs and uncertainties of hostile moves if the trilateral framework is further institutionalised. It recommends that Athens and Nicosia deepen IGC mechanisms now and discreetly cultivate working channels with the new opposition formation, while avoiding overt signals of partisanship toward either Netanyahu or his challengers.
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